It's an interesting article, but I feel the analysis is very one sided. For example, "here are the costs of putting boots on the ground against ISIS: look there are costs, we shouldn't do it!"
But what about the benefits?
In rational analysis one has to be very careful to not construct these kinds of one-sided analyses because they are a fully general counterargument. Everything has costs. By just pointing at the costs and not even mentioning the benefits you can make anything look bad.
The point about being overly emotional in the immediate wake of a major disaster is a good one though. What do you think we could have done differently and better after 9/11 by being more rational and less emotional?
I hear you about the analysis. Unfortunately, the word length restrictions of 700 words made it impossible for me to write a nuanced piece. I wanted to make the large point about avoiding being overly emotional, and that meant going against the specific emotional tonality and saber-rattling and attention bias.
After 9/11? I think we could have done much more to make a plan and get support from other countries on actually rebuilding Afghanistan after we conquered it. The current mess there is a testament to our poorly-planned entry into that war. I'm not going to go into details of how to do it, but that's my short answer.
Here's my op-ed that uses long-term orientation, probabilistic thinking, numeracy, consider the alternative, reaching our actual goals, avoiding intuitive emotional reactions and attention bias, and other rationality techniques to suggest more rational responses to the Paris attacks and the ISIS threat. It's published in the Sunday edition of The Plain Dealer, a major newspaper (16th in the US). This is part of my broader project, Intentional Insights, of conveying rational thinking, including about politics, to a broad audience to raise the sanity waterline.