Did the Allies win WW I?
I think it is pretty obvious that by most measures that the central powers did not win the war, but did that victory create a lasting peace?
It obviously didn't. The way the "victory" in WW I was handled pretty much set the stage for WW II.
It is the same way in the middle east, you can have a "victory" or "win" but that does not mean long lasting peace.
Did the Allies win WW I?
They didn't beat Germans in Germany. They beat the German army outside of it and the Germans admitted defeat. The Sunni groups that are precursors of deash and that were active before the US left Iraq were never beaten to defeat.
Here's my op-ed that uses long-term orientation, probabilistic thinking, numeracy, consider the alternative, reaching our actual goals, avoiding intuitive emotional reactions and attention bias, and other rationality techniques to suggest more rational responses to the Paris attacks and the ISIS threat. It's published in the Sunday edition of The Plain Dealer, a major newspaper (16th in the US). This is part of my broader project, Intentional Insights, of conveying rational thinking, including about politics, to a broad audience to raise the sanity waterline.