I hear you about using mathematical modeling. However, I'm talking about quick, intuitive, System 1 probabilistic estimates here, more Fermi style than anything else. Remember, the goal is to convey to a broad audience that they can do probabilistic estimates, too. Let's not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
the goal is to convey to a broad audience that they can do probabilistic estimates, too.
But can they do good probabilistic estimates? A little knowledge is a dangerous thing...
Here's my op-ed that uses long-term orientation, probabilistic thinking, numeracy, consider the alternative, reaching our actual goals, avoiding intuitive emotional reactions and attention bias, and other rationality techniques to suggest more rational responses to the Paris attacks and the ISIS threat. It's published in the Sunday edition of The Plain Dealer, a major newspaper (16th in the US). This is part of my broader project, Intentional Insights, of conveying rational thinking, including about politics, to a broad audience to raise the sanity waterline.