= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
AABoyles comments on Omega's Idiot Brother, Epsilon - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (7)
To take the obvious approach, let's calculate Expected Values for both strategies. To start, let's try two-boxing:
(80/8000 * 1000) + (7920/8000 * 1,001,000) = $991,000
Not bad. OK, how about one-boxing?
(3996/4000 * 1,000,000) + (4/4000 * 0) = $999,000
So one-boxing is the rational strategy (assuming you're seeking to maximize the amount of money you get).
However, this game has two interesting properties which, together, would make me consider one-boxing based on exogenous circumstances. The first is that the difference between the two strategies is very small: only $8000. If I have $990-odd thousand dollars, I'm not going to be hung up the last $8000. In other words, money has a diminishing marginal utility. As a corollary to this, two-boxing guarantees that the player receives at least $1000, where one-boxing could result in the player receiving nothing. Again, because money has a diminishing marginal utility, getting the first $1000 may be worth the risk of not winning the million. If, for example, I needed a sum of money less than $1000 to keep myself alive (with certainty), I would two-box in a heartbeat.
All that said, I would (almost always, certainly) one-box.
The interesting properties actually all exist in the original Newcomb's Problem, which if you're not familiar with it, has two important differences: First, Omega leaves the boxes, so they're both there. Second, Omega always, or nearly always in some variations, predicts what you'll do. (So the expected value is $1,000 versus $1,000,000).
The addition of these two properties result in some number of people insisting they'd two-box, and in at least one philosopher's answer, if for no other reason than to take a principled stand for human autonomy and free will. (Which, if this weren't all talk, would be rather an expensive principle that one has no choice but to stand up for...)