Nick_Tarleton comments on Allais Malaise - Less Wrong

20 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 21 January 2008 12:40AM

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Comment author: Nick_Tarleton 23 January 2008 07:21:53PM 0 points [-]

B-1 is wrong because you're not using marginal utility. On the second repetition, U(marginal)[$1,000,000] is either 1 or 0.1 depending on whether you lost or won on the first play. You can still add the utilities of events up, but the first and second plays are different events, utility-wise, so you can't multiply by 2. The correct expression is:

(50%*U($0) + 50%*U(the first million)) + (50%*U($0) + 50%*(50%*U(the first million) + 50%*U(the second million)))

which comes out to .775.