VoiceOfRa comments on Rationality Quotes Thread December 2015 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: elharo 02 December 2015 11:28AM

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Comment author: VoiceOfRa 06 December 2015 09:14:27PM 0 points [-]

That seems like selection bias.

Yes, it's still a bias.

This is like saying engineering disproportionately channels optimism, because almost all the appliances you buy in the store work now and only fail later. If they had failed immediately, they would have been flagged in QC and never got to the shop.

The difference is, if they fail, you can always buy a new appliance. You can't buy a new body.

Comment author: Good_Burning_Plastic 13 December 2015 06:54:48PM *  1 point [-]

The difference is, if they fail, you can always buy a new appliance.

For some underwhelming value of "always", and anyway appliances aren't all that engineering makes.

Off the top of my head, cases when "harms take longer to show up & disprove than benefits" outside medicine included leaded gasoline, chlorofluorocarbons, asbestos, cheap O-rings in space shuttles, the 1940 Tacoma Narrows Bridge, the use of two-digit year numbers...

Comment author: VoiceOfRa 13 December 2015 07:20:32PM 1 point [-]

cheap O-rings in space shuttles

Look at Feynman's analysis. I'd say this is a good example of disproportionate channeling of optimism.

Comment author: Good_Burning_Plastic 14 December 2015 03:16:38AM *  1 point [-]

Yes. My point was that disproportionate channeling of optimism isn't something specific to medicine (let alone to evidence-based medicine).

EDIT: Hmm, I guess I originally took "disproportionally" to mean "compared to how much other things channel optimism" whereas it'd make more sense to interpret it as "compared to how much medicine channels pessimism".