ChristianKl comments on Rationality Quotes Thread December 2015 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: elharo 02 December 2015 11:28AM

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Comment author: DanArmak 06 December 2015 03:35:27PM *  6 points [-]

That seems like selection bias.

You do a lot of studies and experiments, and filter out most proposed medicine because it causes harm quickly, or doesn't cause benefits quickly enough or at all. Then you market whatever survived testing. Obviously, if it's still harmful, the harms will show up only slowly, while the benefits will show up quickly - otherwise you would have filtered it out before it reached the consumer.

This is like saying engineering disproportionately channels optimism, because almost all the appliances you buy in the store work now and only fail later. If they had failed immediately, they would have been flagged in QC and never got to the shop.

Comment author: ChristianKl 06 December 2015 09:42:39PM 0 points [-]

If an appliance you buy fails than you know that it fails. If a drug reduces your IQ by 5 points you won't know. Drugs also don't get tested for whether or not they reduce your IQ by 5 points.