RichardKennaway comments on Rationality Quotes Thread December 2015 - Less Wrong
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Choose your reference class, get the result you want. Is Turkey "Western" or not? It wants to join the EU (but hasn't been admitted yet). Russia is bombing Syria. Why exclude it from the class of foreign interventions? For that matter, I don't know what military actions, if any, Turkey has taken in Syria, but that would also be a foreign intervention.
Not to mention the the smallness of N in the proposed study and the elastic assessment.
I googled some of the phrases in the OP but only got hits to the OP. Is this even a quote?