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Lumifer comments on Help with understanding some non-standard-LW philosophy viewpoints - Less Wrong
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Note that only the future is probabilistic. The past is fixed, the probability of Putin ordering airstrikes in Syria is 1 -- it happened.
But also note that while the past may be fixed, your knowledge of the past is probabilistic. I assume there is evidence you could encounter that would convince you that Putin ordering airstrikes in Syria didn't actually happen.
That is true -- as usual, distinguishing the map and the territory is a useful habit and the map is never perfect.
Which suggests the past might be just as probabilistic as the future.
Or perhaps the future is also fixed, and it's incomplete models of the universe which are probabilistic. This includes models of the past, present, and future.
I don't know how to get MY model to have a probability of Putin's past actions to 1. I'm not knowledgeable enough to assign less than a hundredth of a percent to possibilities that someone else ordered airstrikes, or it's all fake, or something.