Steven_Bukal comments on Help with understanding some non-standard-LW philosophy viewpoints - Less Wrong
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But also note that while the past may be fixed, your knowledge of the past is probabilistic. I assume there is evidence you could encounter that would convince you that Putin ordering airstrikes in Syria didn't actually happen.
That is true -- as usual, distinguishing the map and the territory is a useful habit and the map is never perfect.
Which suggests the past might be just as probabilistic as the future.