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phob comments on Circular Altruism - Less Wrong
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I don't think this is too difficult to understand. Both in both situations, the deciders don't want to be think of themselves as possibly responsible for avoidable death. In the first scenario, you don't want to be the guy who made a gamble and everyone dies. In the second, you don't want to choose for 100 people to die. People make different choices in the two situations because they want to minimize moral culpability.
Is that rational? Strictly speaking, mabye not. Is it human? Absolutely!
Rational yes, if other people know of the decision. If you never find out the result of the gamble, are not held responsible and have your memory wiped, then all confounding interests are wiped except the desire for people not to die. Only then are the irrational options actually irrational.