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Lumifer comments on Why CFAR? The view from 2015 - Less Wrong
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Thanks for writing this up!
As a participant, I think the claim that MSFP was a resounding success is a little strong. It's not at all clear to me that anyone gained new skills by attending (at least, I don't feel like I did), as distinct from learning about new ideas, using their existing skills, becoming convinced of various positions, and making social connections (which are more than enough to explain the new hires). To me it was an interesting experiment whose results I find hard to evaluate.
I don't claim that it developed skill and talent in all participants, nor even in the median participant. I do stand by my claim that it appears to have had drastic good effects on a few people though, and that it led directly to MIRI hires, at least one of which would not have happened otherwise :-)
And yet you called it "a resounding success". Does that mean that you're focusing on the crème de la crème, the top tier of the participants, while being less concerned with what's happening in lower quantiles?
Yes, precisely. (Transparency illusion strikes again! I had considered it obvious that the default outcome was "a few people are nudged slightly more towards becoming AI alignment researchers someday", and that the outcome of "actually cause at least one very talented person to become AI alignment researcher who otherwise would not have, over the course of three weeks" was clearly in "resounding success" territory, whereas "turn half the attendees into AI alignment researchers" is in I'll-eat-my-hat territory.)
For this unusual, MIRI-comissioned workshop, yes.