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turchin comments on Levels of global catastrophes: from mild to extinction - Less Wrong

3 Post author: turchin 27 December 2015 05:26PM

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Comment author: turchin 30 December 2015 12:18:10PM 0 points [-]

If only one village survive, it will use scavenging of nearby city for decades and during this time it will lost most high educated people.

But lets assume that scavenging economy is no possible, may be this village survive on remote island, which is probable, in case of pandemic.

In this case the main problem will be economy of scale, chemistry and raw materials. Even 19 century economy is based on available coal, iron ore, copper and some other things. Most of them require very specific people, knowledges and instruments to find and produce.

And also they are economically useful only if it is done in the medium size european country.

And finally most ores which were easily available in 19 century are now depleted or not present at all in remote islands. So if a village survive on an island it will not be able to build steampowered ship in next few years to explore surrounding. I also would not overestimate the ability of random people to study new science like geology, using only books, without proper training and control.