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iarwain1 comments on Open Thread, January 4-10, 2016 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: polymathwannabe 04 January 2016 01:06PM

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Comment author: iarwain1 11 January 2016 09:32:52PM * 2 points [-]

So probability of either Trump or Cruz is 100%?

Comment author: OrphanWilde 11 January 2016 09:40:48PM -1 points [-]

No, ~83%

Comment author: ChristianKl 11 January 2016 09:58:49PM 0 points [-]

How do you go from Trump to get Republican nomination: 65% and Cruz to get Republican nomination: 35% to 83%?

Comment author: OrphanWilde 11 January 2016 11:40:05PM -1 points [-]

Rephrase those as the inverse probabilities (Trump's probability of losing is 35%, Cruz's is 65%), and it will make more sense.

Comment author: g_pepper 12 January 2016 12:06:48AM 2 points [-]

It seems to me that if the probability of Trump winning is 35% and the probability of Cruz winning is 65%, then the probability of Trump or Cruz winning is 100% (since the probability of Cruz AND Trump wining is 0%).