iarwain1 comments on Open Thread, January 4-10, 2016 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: polymathwannabe 04 January 2016 01:06PM

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Comment author: OrphanWilde 11 January 2016 08:59:18PM *  0 points [-]

Some political predictions (Edited for formatting):

  • Another stock market slump within the next year: 50% (70% within two years)
  • Cor: Average stock value collapse, given slump, of 70%, +- 10%: 90%
  • Trump to get Republican nomination: 65%
  • Cruz to get Republican nomination: 35%
  • Hillary to get Democratic nomination: 30%
  • Rel: Hillary to be indicted on criminal charges: 50%
  • Sanders to get Democratic nomination: 60%
  • Republicans to win 2016 presidential race, regardless of nomination: 80%
  • Republicans to win moderate majority in both houses in 2016: 80%
  • Republicans to keep moderate majority in congress in 2018 given economic crash: 60%
  • Republicans to keep at least parity in congress in 2018 given economic crash: 80%
  • Republicans to keep moderate majority in congress in 2018 without economic crash: 30%
  • Republicans to keep at least parity in congress in 2018 without economic crash: 60%
  • Democrats to win 2020 presidential election without economic crash: 40%
  • Democrats to win 2020 presidential election with economic crash: 10%
  • Democrats to win 2024 presidential election, given loss of 2020 presidential election, without economic crash: 80%
  • Democrats to win 2024 presidential election, given loss of 2020 presidential election, with economic crash: 70%
  • US National Health Database goes online in next ten years: 30%
  • WHO to change Health Index ranking rules substantially given the US national health database goes online: 60%
  • WHO to change Health Index ranking rules substantially given the US national health database doesn't go online: 10%
  • Average global temperatures to warm by more than .7 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 0%
  • Average global temperatures to warm by more than .5 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 0%
  • Average global temperatures to warm by more than .3 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 10%
  • Average global temperatures to warm by more than .1 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 20%
  • Average global temperatures to warm by more than .07 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 30%
  • Average global temperatures to warm by more than .04 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 70%
  • Major military conflict between two first world nations over the next ten years: 10%
  • Threat of major military conflict between two first world nations over the next ten years: 70%
Comment author: iarwain1 11 January 2016 09:32:52PM *  2 points [-]

So probability of either Trump or Cruz is 100%?

Comment author: OrphanWilde 11 January 2016 09:40:48PM -1 points [-]

No, ~83%

Comment author: ChristianKl 11 January 2016 09:58:49PM 0 points [-]

How do you go from Trump to get Republican nomination: 65% and Cruz to get Republican nomination: 35% to 83%?

Comment author: OrphanWilde 11 January 2016 11:40:05PM -1 points [-]

Rephrase those as the inverse probabilities (Trump's probability of losing is 35%, Cruz's is 65%), and it will make more sense.

Comment author: g_pepper 12 January 2016 12:06:48AM 2 points [-]

It seems to me that if the probability of Trump winning is 35% and the probability of Cruz winning is 65%, then the probability of Trump or Cruz winning is 100% (since the probability of Cruz AND Trump wining is 0%).

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