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TheAncientGeek comments on Map:Territory::Uncertainty::Randomness – but that doesn’t matter, value of information does. - Less Wrong
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Comments (21)
I don't know whether he is wrong in the sense that irreducible uncertainty exists in the territory, but the reasoning he uses to reach the conclusion is invalid.
He's discussing a different point.
Which is?
That humans fall prey to the mind projection fallacy about much more consequential parts of what is clearly epistemic uncertainty.
It is not clearly the case that all probability is epistemic uncertainty. There is no valid argument that establishes that. There can be no armchair argument that establishes that, since the existence or otherwise of objective probability is a property of the universe, and has to be established by looking.
OK. But, there is still some important epistemic uncertainty that people nonetheless treat as intrinsic, purely because derp.