Sure, but it's not just about what experts say on a survey about human level AI. It's also about what info a good Go program has for this question, and whether MIRI's program makes any sense (and whether it should take people's money). People here didn't say "oh experts said X, I am updating," they said "EY said X on facebook, time for me to change my opinion."
"EY said X on facebook, time for me to change my opinion."
Who do you think said that in this case?
Just to be clear about your position, what do you think are reasonable values for human-level AI with 10% probability/
human-level AI with 50% probability and human-level AI with 90% probability?
DeepMind's go AI, called AlphaGo, has beaten the European champion with a score of 5-0. A match against top ranked human, Lee Se-dol, is scheduled for March.