I'm afraid we will never know whether someone is "close" to (super)human AGI, unless this entity reveals it. Now think nuclear bomb... and superAGI is supposed to be orders of magnitude more powerful/dangerous.
So, not unlike the wartime disappearance of scientific articles on nuclear topics, certain (sudden?) lack of progress reporting press could be an indicator.
LINK
Yoshua Bengio, one the world's leading expert on machine learning, and neural networks in particular, explains his view on these issues in an interview. Relevant quotes:
I think it's fair to say that Bengio has joined the ranks of AI researchers like his colleagues Andrew Ng and Yann LeCun who publicly express skepticism towards imminent human-extinction-level AI.