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johnlawrenceaspden comments on A Medical Mystery: Thyroid Hormones, Chronic Fatigue and Fibromyalgia - Less Wrong
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You admitted it yourself. You're using dodgy inferences!
This is especially bad if you have a chain of them, as the errors accumulate--if your reasoning depends on five dodgy inferences each with a 60% chance of being correct, you're already down to 8%.
Right! So now I have an 8% chance of being right about something really serious. And so I need to make a prediction and work out whether it's true, and then adjust. You try it!
What kind of prediction could you possibly make about "almost all the remaining unexplained human ailments", that could be checked to see if it's true?
And even if there was something, you haven't actually made or tested the prediction yet. So not only have you used dodgy inferences, you're putting the burden of proof on the wrong side. It's not up to other people to prove it false, it's up to you to prove it true, and if you haven't done that yet, you have no business believing it.
http://lesswrong.com/lw/nbm/thyroid_hormones_chronic_fatigue_and_fibromyalgia/
Certainly not putting the burden of proof on the other side. Don't believe it myself.