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ChristianKl comments on Rationality Quotes Thread February 2016 - Less Wrong
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Comments (92)
I love this quote. But this...
...strikes me as a highly confident declaration for which the quoted is simultaneously urging me to be skeptical.
I'd imagine the book lays out his case as to why I ought listen to his counsel. I'd be interested to dig into this.
I think it's probably false if you treat it as the claim that every person who's highly confident that an event happens has constructed a coherent story in his mind.
On the other hand that reading doesn't seem to be the intended message.
It says "mainly". That's vague-ish. I assumed greater than 50%; probably something like 75% of the time or more.