Armok_GoB comments on Rationality Quotes Thread February 2016 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: elharo 02 February 2016 06:17PM

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Comment author: Bitnotri 21 February 2016 06:38:13PM 7 points [-]

“It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously,” Daniel Kahneman noted, “but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.”

Superforcasting, p. 85

Comment author: Brillyant 22 February 2016 08:10:52PM 1 point [-]

I love this quote. But this...

declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind

...strikes me as a highly confident declaration for which the quoted is simultaneously urging me to be skeptical.

I'd imagine the book lays out his case as to why I ought listen to his counsel. I'd be interested to dig into this.

Comment author: Armok_GoB 02 March 2016 07:24:48PM 0 points [-]

The solution here might be that it does mainly tell you they have constructed a coherent story in their mind, but that having constructed a coherent story in their mind is still usefull evidence for being true depending on what else you know abaut the person, and thus worth telling. If the tone of the book was differnt, it might say:

“I have constructed a coherent story in my mind that it is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously, but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.”

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