I have the sense that there's something wrong with this division into "adopters" and "non-adopters". The lack of increase in cryonics-adopters while pro-cryonics evidence has been coming in does not mean that there is one group that updates their cryonics decisions rationally (the adopters) and one group that does not (the non-adopters). If that were the case then there would be an increase, as the rational ones gradually got on board as evidence came in. The stasis in the adoption curve wouldn't just mean that the current non-adopters are irrational for not getting on board, it would also mean that the adopters were irrational for getting on board too soon, before the good evidence came in. Unless we want to say that from the get-go the pro-cryonics case was super strong.
Unless we want to say that from the get-go the pro-cryonics case was super strong.
I don't think it has to be super-strong. It just has to be reasonable. It was reasonable at the time, and as excuses get knocked down without any decrease in fraction of non-adopters, it becomes increasingly clear that they were not the real reason for the non-adopters and that they are non-adopters for pre-determined reasons which have little to do with the science.
The Brain Preservation Foundation’s Small Mammalian Brain Prize has been won with fantastic preservation of a whole rabbit brain using a new fixative+slow-vitrification process.
The process was published as “Aldehyde-stabilized cryopreservation”, McIntyre & Fahy 2015 (mirror)
(They had problems with 2 pigs and got 1 pig brain successfully cryopreserved but it wasn’t part of the entry. I’m not sure why: is that because the Large Mammalian Brain Prize is not yet set up?)donation link
To summarize it, you might say that this is a hybrid of current plastination and vitrification methods, where instead of allowing slow plastination (with unknown decay & loss) or forcing fast cooling (with unknown damage and loss), a staged approach is taking: a fixative is injected into the brain first to immediately lock down all proteins and stop all decay/change, and then it is leisurely cooled down to be vitrified.
This is exciting progress because the new method may wind up preserving better than either of the parent methods, but also because it gives much greater visibility into the end-results: the aldehyde-vitrified brains can be easily scanned with electron microscopes and the results seen in high detail, showing fantastic preservation of structure, unlike regular vitrification where the scans leave opaque how good the preservation was. This opacity is one reason that as Mike Darwin has pointed out at length on his blog and jkaufman has also noted that we cannot be confident in how well ALCOR or CI’s vitrification works - because if it didn’t, we have little way of knowing.
EDIT: BPF’s founder Ken Hayworth (Reddit account) has posted a piece, arguing that ALCOR & CI cannot be trusted to do procedures well and that future work should be done via rigorous clinical trials and only then rolled out. “Opinion: The prize win is a vindication of the idea of cryonics, not of unaccountable cryonics service organizations”