polymathwannabe comments on Where does our community disagree about meaningful issues? - Less Wrong

16 Post author: ChristianKl 12 February 2016 11:34AM

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Comment author: polymathwannabe 12 February 2016 08:16:52PM 0 points [-]

I've noticed most LWers who bother to speak on the matter predict with high confidence a Republican win, whereas I don't see that anywhere in the realm of possibility this year. By contrast, RationalWiki is all for Sanders, it seems.

Comment author: Old_Gold 13 February 2016 02:09:25AM 5 points [-]

You seem to be conflating who someone expects to win with who he is supporting.

Comment author: Dagon 13 February 2016 02:53:14AM 1 point [-]

LWers who bother to speak on the matter predict with high confidence a Republican win

A few examples? I've seen references to betting market odds, but nobody predicting any outcome with anywhere near high confidence (say, 70%+). Maybe I'm just not invited to those threads :)

Comment author: gjm 12 February 2016 08:47:26PM 1 point [-]

I suspect this is mostly a matter of who has bothered to speak on the matter.

(I'm outside the US and not watching closely, but FWIW I think more likely Democrat.)

Comment author: _rpd 12 February 2016 08:40:54PM 1 point [-]

predict with high confidence a Republican win

Odd since most prediction markets have a 60/40 split in favor of a Democrat winning the US presidency.

E.g., https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres16_Quotes.html

Sanders vs. Trump.

The polls have Sanders ahead in this particular matchup ...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

Comment author: JohnGreer 13 February 2016 01:19:44AM 1 point [-]

Yes, I've mostly seen a Democrat favored. I bet two bitcoin on Hilary a year ago based on FiveThirtyEight's posts.

Comment author: Nornagest 13 February 2016 12:19:41AM *  -2 points [-]

Probably contrarianism talking -- both here and on RationalWiki, actually. I wouldn't take it too seriously.

Comment author: ChristianKl 13 February 2016 11:35:04AM -1 points [-]

I've noticed most LWers who bother to speak on the matter predict with high confidence a Republican win, whereas I don't see that anywhere in the realm of possibility this year.

From predictionbook data I don't get that impression.