Lumifer comments on Estimating the probability of human extinction - Less Wrong

5 Post author: philosophytorres 17 February 2016 04:19PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (33)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Lumifer 04 March 2016 04:53:55PM 1 point [-]

I am not sure the OP had much meaning behind his "vaguely magical" expression, but given that we are discussing it anyway :-) I would probably reinterpret it in terms of Knightian uncertainty. It's not only the case that we don't know, we don't know what we don't know and how much we don't know.

Comment author: SoerenE 04 March 2016 07:30:40PM 0 points [-]

This interpretation makes a lot of sense. The term can describe events that have a lot of Knightian Uncertainty, which a "Black Swan" like UFAI certainly has.