What precisely does "There is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow" mean?
It means that the proportion of meteorological models that predict rain to those that don't is 7:3. Take an umbrella. ;)
It means that the proportion of meteorological models that predict rain to those that don't is 7:3
Yeah, that's an old joke, except it's told about meteorologists and not models.
But the question of "what a probability actually is" stands. You are not going to argue that it's a ratio of model outcomes, are you?
Alternatively, what single concept from statistics would most improve people's interpretations of popular news and daily life events?