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mkf comments on If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be? - Less Wrong
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Comments (67)
One possible answer, related to the concept of calibration, is this: it means that it rained in 70% of the cases when you predicted 70% chance of rain.
You've defined your calibration with respect to predicting rain. But I am not interested in calibration, I'm interested in the weather tomorrow. Does the probability of rain tomorrow even exist?