HungryHobo comments on If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be? - Less Wrong

3 Post author: enfascination 22 February 2016 07:53PM

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Comment author: HungryHobo 23 February 2016 11:00:06AM * 3 points [-]

That the statement "X causes Y" is almost meaningless without knowing how much.

Bread gives you cancer? Really? OH MY GOD! (small print, only 1 in a [huge number] chance)

But most people seem to only have 3 levels of belief about things.

"X does"," X does not", "X maybe does" and round them to 1,0 and 0.5 respectively.

You'll find yourself having conversations with these people along the lines of

Nutter:"You shouldn't let children do that! it causes cancer!"

You:"there's less than one in a million chance assuming they do this every day of their lives"

Nutter:"SEE! IT CAUSES CANCER! I KNEW IT! YOU MONSTER "

Most people are depressingly thick.