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kithpendragon comments on If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be? - Less Wrong
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Comments (67)
The status quo is certainly wrong when it comes to the presentation of weather related data. The report is badly oversimplified due to several effects including the (over)estimated gap in understanding of statistics between meteorologists and the general public.
A 30% chance of precipitation is not, however, "wrong" if it does in fact rain. It merely expresses a fairly high degree of uncertainty in the claim "it will/won't rain today". The claim that such a report means the meteorologist was wrong (or somehow lying) is the subject of my complaint, not the format of the report itself (which I agree is abysmally deficient).
Do you think
I was just dumbing things downis generally a valid excuse when people state that you are making wrong statements?I think lying does include an attempt at deception which I agree isn't there on the part of meteorologists.