Lumifer comments on If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be? - Less Wrong

3 Post author: enfascination 22 February 2016 07:53PM

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Comment author: philh 23 February 2016 11:12:29AM 1 point [-]

"Probability of appreciable rainfall" * "fraction of specified area which will receive it" is 0.7.

Or, I guess more properly it should be an integral over possible rainfall patterns. But "70% of London will definitely see lots of rain, and 30% will see none" and "we have 70% credence that all of London will see lots of rain, and 30% credence that no rain will fall in London" would both be reported as 70% chance of rain in London.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_of_precipitation

Comment author: Lumifer 23 February 2016 03:56:10PM 2 points [-]

"Probability of appreciable rainfall"

And what does that mean?