The point was that the meteorologist is not "wrong" if it rains on a 30% chance
Well, is the forecast falsifiable, then? Can it be wrong? How would you know?
Probability is a quantitative expression of predictive uncertainty that exists within an informational system such as the human brain or, yes, weather prediction models.
So the probability exists purely in the map, but not in the territory? I am not sure quantum mechanics would agree.
Is the forecast falsifiable, then? Can it be wrong? How would you know?
Same way you know if other probabilistic prediction systems are "wrong": keep track of accurate and inaccurate predictions, weighted by confidence levels, and develop model of the system's reliability. Unreliable systems are probably "wrong" in some way. Individual predictions that express extreme confidence in an outcome that is not observed are "wrong". But I cannot recall having reason to accuse any meteorologists of either error. (Full disclosure: I ...
Alternatively, what single concept from statistics would most improve people's interpretations of popular news and daily life events?