philh comments on If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be? - Less Wrong
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Yes, I wasn't answering the question as intended. But both kithpendragon and Lumifer were talking about the weather forecast, and it does seem at least vaguely relevant that even if you know exactly what probability is, that's not sufficient to understand "70% chance of rain".
Okay, I might have been to harsh.