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James_Miller comments on If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be? - Less Wrong
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Comments (67)
It's a belief about beliefs.
That's true, but it's hard to see why that means that it would be a contradiction. It's true that there is a contradiction if you say that all beliefs have a specific mathematical probability of less than one (e.g. including that 1+1=2), since probability theory also assumes that the probability of a mathematical claim is 1. But probability theory isn't supposed to be an exact representation of human beliefs in the first place, but a formalized and idealized representation. In reality we are not always completely certain even of mathematical truths, and this does not cause the existence of a contradiction, because this uncertainty, considered in itself, is not something mathematical.
You could say in the same way that all beliefs are uncertain, including this one, without any contradiction, just as it is not a contradiction to say that all sentences are made of words, including this one.
I interpreted the statement as basically "I am CERTAIN that you can never be certain of anything." I almost didn't post a response because I thought the author might have been deliberately being sarcastic.