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DanArmak comments on If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be? - Less Wrong
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Comments (67)
That's correct: my approach doesn't generalize to unique/rare events. The 'naive' or frequentist approach seems to work for weather predictions, and creates a simple intuition that's easier IMO to explain to laymen than more general approaches.
What do you mean?
What Vaniver said: my approach breaks down for unique events. Edited for clarity.