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Lumifer comments on If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be? - Less Wrong
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If you offered me the choice of two "lottery tickets", one of which paid $30 if it rained tomorrow and one of which paid $70 if it didn't, I wouldn't care which one I took.
My question was about the probability of rain, not about what you would be willing to bet on. Besides, who's that "me", a perfect rational Homo Economicus or a real person? Offering bets to an idealized concept seems like an iffy idea :-)