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sambra comments on Newcomb's Problem and Regret of Rationality - Less Wrong
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I think the two box person is confused about what it is to be rational, it does not mean "make a fancy argument," it means start with the facts, abstract from them, and reason about your abstractions.
In this case if you start with the facts you see that 100% of people who take only box B win big, so rationally, you do the same. Why would anyone be surprised that reason divorced from facts gives the wrong answer?
Precisely. I've been reading a lot about the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem">Monty Hall problem</a> recently, and I feel that it's a relevant conundrum.
The confused rationalist will say: but my choice CANNOT cause a linear entaglement, the reward is predecided. But the functional rationalist will see that agents who one-box (or switch doors, in the case of Monty Hall) consistently win. It is demonstrably a more effective strategy. You work with the facts and evidence available to you. Regardless of how counter-intuitive the resulting strategy becomes.