Corwyn8 comments on Newcomb's Problem and Regret of Rationality - Less Wrong

64 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 31 January 2008 07:36PM

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Comment author: Corwyn8 10 July 2012 08:09:51PM 0 points [-]

It seems to me that no rationalist should accept the 'givens' in this scenario without a lot of evidence.

So what am I left with. Some being who hands out boxes, and 100 examples of people who open 1 box and get $1M or open both boxes and get $1k. I am unwilling to accept on faith a super-intelligent alien, so I will make the simplifying assumption that the being is in fact Penn & Teller. In which case, the question simplifies to "Am I willing to bet at 1000:1 odds that Penn & Teller aren't able to make a box which vanishes $1M if I choose both boxes." To which I respond, no.

No reversal causality required. No superintelligent prediction required. I simply know that I can't beat Penn & Teller at their own game 999 times out of 1000.