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SoerenMind comments on Updating towards the simulation hypothesis because you think about AI - Less Wrong
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I guess an answer to "Given that my name is Alex, what is the probability that my name is Alex?" could be that the hypothesis is highly selected. When you're still the soul that'll be assigned to a body, looking at the world from above, this guy named Alex won't stick out because of his name. But the people who will influence the most consequential event in the history of that world will.
I think that where are many domains where people think that they are "will influence the most consequential event in the history of that world". So the write question is what is the probability that a random person interested in changing the world think that he is able to participate in it. Almost 1.