I mostly had in mind 2. Not sure how predicting humans is different from putting humans in hypotheticals. It seems like the same problems could happen.
I agree that the same problem appears for ALBA. I was originally working with proposals where the improbability of the human's situation was bounded, but the recursive structure can lead to arbitrarily large improbability. I hadn't thought about this explicitly.
Predicting humans is different from putting humans in hypotheticals, in the sense that in principle you can actually sample from the situations that cause humans to think they are in a simulation or whatever.
For example, suppose the human had access to a button that said "This is weird, I'm pro...
There have been a couple of brief discussions of this in the Open Thread, but it seems likely to generate more so here's a place for it.
The original paper in Nature about AlphaGo.
Google Asia Pacific blog, where results will be posted. DeepMind's YouTube channel, where the games are being live-streamed.
Discussion on Hacker News after AlphaGo's win of the first game.