username2 comments on Prediction challenge: Zika and birth rates - Less Wrong

8 Post author: NancyLebovitz 12 March 2016 04:55PM

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Comment author: username2 13 March 2016 10:45:57AM *  3 points [-]

I predict that we'll see at least a few Latin American countries relaxing their restrictions on abortion. I'd say that within next five years at least four countries will significantly relax their abortion laws (probability - 55 percent), and within next five years at least one of the countries where abortion is strictly prohibited will make a legal exception for women infected with Zika virus, or a legal exception that covers Zika cases even though it's not worded that way, or de facto legalize abortion in those cases by telling law enforcement to turn the blind eye on hospitals that perform abortions(probability - 80 percent).