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Huluk comments on Lesswrong 2016 Survey - Less Wrong

29 Post author: Elo 30 March 2016 06:17PM

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Comment author: Huluk 26 March 2016 12:55:37AM *  26 points [-]

[Survey Taken Thread]

By ancient tradition, if you take the survey you may comment saying you have done so here, and people will upvote you and you will get karma.

Let's make these comments a reply to this post. That way we continue the tradition, but keep the discussion a bit cleaner.

Comment author: Vaniver 26 March 2016 01:38:08AM 45 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Huluk 26 March 2016 01:06:44AM 44 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Houshalter 26 March 2016 03:48:53AM 43 points [-]

I took the survey 2 days ago. It was fun. I think I was well calibrated for those calibration questions, but sadly there was no "results" section.

Comment author: MTGandP 26 March 2016 04:42:51PM 6 points [-]

Is it possible to self-consistently believe you're poorly calibrated? If you believe you're overconfident then you would start making less confident predictions right?

Comment author: indexador2 26 March 2016 11:01:56PM 8 points [-]

Being poorly calibrated can also mean you're inconsistent between being overconfident and underconfident.

Comment author: scarcegreengrass 29 March 2016 03:00:06PM 3 points [-]

You can be imperfectly synchronised across contexts & instances.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 26 March 2016 11:58:16PM 42 points [-]

I have taken the survey. I like the new format.

Comment author: Crab 26 March 2016 10:34:52PM 42 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Anders_H 26 March 2016 10:10:21PM 42 points [-]

I took the survey

Comment author: Sarunas 26 March 2016 03:42:26PM 42 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Jonni 26 March 2016 12:22:48PM 42 points [-]

Survey: taken.

Comment author: Evan_Gaensbauer 26 March 2016 08:50:49AM 42 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 26 March 2016 08:37:40AM 42 points [-]

I've taken the survey.

Comment author: Gyrodiot 26 March 2016 07:16:28AM 42 points [-]

I have taken the survey. Yesterday.

Comment author: [deleted] 26 March 2016 05:07:21AM 42 points [-]

I have taken the survey

Comment author: DataPacRat 26 March 2016 02:52:53AM 42 points [-]

Yet another survey be-takener here.

Comment author: gjm 26 March 2016 01:44:03AM 42 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: ArgleBlargle 26 March 2016 01:42:56AM 42 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: ete 26 March 2016 05:07:55PM 41 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Vivificient 27 March 2016 01:55:51AM *  40 points [-]

It is done. (The survey. By me.)

Comment author: DanArmak 26 March 2016 08:01:28PM *  40 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: MTGandP 26 March 2016 04:41:23PM *  40 points [-]

The survey has been taken by me.

Comment author: blacktrance 26 March 2016 03:43:14AM 40 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: iceman 26 March 2016 03:03:27AM 40 points [-]

Survey achieved.

Comment author: richard_reitz 26 March 2016 02:36:43AM 40 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Fluttershy 27 March 2016 04:38:29AM 39 points [-]

I have taken the survey. :)

Comment author: AspiringRationalist 27 March 2016 01:01:08AM 39 points [-]

I took the survey.

Comment author: bbleeker 26 March 2016 12:15:56PM 39 points [-]

I have taken the survey. I left a lot of questions blank though, because I really have no opinion about many of them.

Comment author: [deleted] 27 March 2016 04:30:40AM 38 points [-]

Survey taken.

Comment author: Terdragon 27 March 2016 02:16:33AM 37 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: ingres 26 March 2016 01:51:02AM 37 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: hawkice 27 March 2016 05:46:34PM 36 points [-]

Took the survey, had the recurring survey confusion about some questions. For instance, I think some taxes should be higher and others should be lower. Saying I have no strong opinion is inaccurate but at least it seemed like the least inaccurate answer.

Comment author: tut 27 March 2016 04:36:48PM 36 points [-]

Me too.

Comment author: Sophronius 27 March 2016 03:18:43PM *  36 points [-]

RE: The survey: I have taken it.

I assume the salary question was meant to be filled in as Bruto, not netto. However that could result in some big differences depending on the country's tax code...

Btw, I liked the professional format of the test itself. Looked very neat.

Comment author: Volyova 27 March 2016 01:37:15PM 36 points [-]

I did My Part!

Comment author: fictionfan 27 March 2016 12:43:46PM 36 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Artaxerxes 27 March 2016 07:42:08AM 36 points [-]

Took it!

It ended somewhat more quickly this time.

Comment author: faul_sname 27 March 2016 07:06:10AM *  36 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: b_sen 27 March 2016 06:21:30AM 36 points [-]

I took the survey!

Comment author: ahartell 27 March 2016 04:15:20AM 36 points [-]

Just finished. I'm sure my calibration was terrible though.

Comment author: harshhpareek 27 March 2016 02:39:25AM 36 points [-]

I took it.

Comment author: SoerenE 29 March 2016 05:54:11PM 35 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: RainbowSpacedancer 29 March 2016 11:45:06AM 35 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: HungryHobo 29 March 2016 11:22:30AM 35 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Plasmon 27 March 2016 10:49:32AM 35 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: SaxophonesAndViolets 27 March 2016 04:01:40AM 35 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Empiricst_or_not 27 March 2016 02:33:48AM 35 points [-]

Survey Taken

Comment author: Will_BC 30 March 2016 05:38:40PM 34 points [-]

I have taken the survey

Comment author: lfghjkl 30 March 2016 01:09:54PM 34 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: taryneast 29 March 2016 10:23:39AM 34 points [-]

I completed the survey. I also like the new format - easy to read, good instructions etc.

Comment author: iarwain1 28 March 2016 11:09:37PM *  34 points [-]

Took survey. Didn't answer all the questions because I suspend judgment on a lot of issues and there was no "I have no idea" option. Some questions did have an "I don't have a strong opinion" option, but I felt a lot more of them should also have that option.

Comment author: RowanE 28 March 2016 05:44:55AM 34 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: g_pepper 28 March 2016 03:28:22AM 34 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Sjcs 28 March 2016 01:01:18AM 34 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

The only option i think was missing was in the final questions about quantities donated to charities, an option such as "I intend to donate more before the end of the financial year" or similar. (and while likely not feasible, following up on those people in the next survey to see if they actually donated would be interesting)

Comment author: XFrequentist 27 March 2016 06:44:41PM 34 points [-]

Yar, have taken the scurvy survey, says I!

Comment author: tanagrabeast 27 March 2016 04:36:11PM 34 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: AlwaysUnite 27 March 2016 04:13:23PM 34 points [-]

I too have take the survey.

Comment author: sylvan_secrets 29 March 2016 05:08:35PM 33 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Stingray 29 March 2016 12:05:18PM 33 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: boatner 28 March 2016 05:21:13PM 33 points [-]

For a few moments I was paralyzed with uncertainty about how humorous to try to make my "I took the survey" response, since many seemed to have made a similar attempt, thus this post took longer to finish than the survey itself, which I have taken.

Comment author: Pfft 28 March 2016 03:43:31AM 33 points [-]

I took the survey!

Comment author: James_Blair 28 March 2016 12:19:35AM 33 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: roryokane 30 March 2016 09:41:19PM 32 points [-]

I took the survey.

Comment author: scarcegreengrass 29 March 2016 02:58:39PM 32 points [-]

((past-tense take) i survey)

Comment author: taryneast 18 April 2016 05:23:08AM 3 points [-]

You've got a slight lisp there ;)

Comment author: Caspian 29 March 2016 03:13:44AM 32 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: rational_rob 29 March 2016 02:27:41AM 32 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Dallas 27 March 2016 01:27:28PM 31 points [-]

For the interests of identity obfuscation, I have rolled a random number between 1 and 100, and have waited for some time afterwards.

On a 1-49: I have taken the survey, and this post was made after a uniformly random period of up to 24 hours.

On a 50-98: I will take the survey after a uniformly random period of up to 72 hours.

On a 99-100: I have not actually taken the survey. Sorry about that, but this really has to be a possible outcome.

Comment author: Vaniver 27 March 2016 04:40:22PM 18 points [-]

Have a 98% chance of an upvote.

Comment author: Glen 30 March 2016 10:13:52PM 30 points [-]

I have taken the survey

Comment author: Bitnotri 30 March 2016 10:09:35PM 30 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Styrke 30 March 2016 10:07:16PM 30 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

I think I spent about 1 hour and 20 minutes answering almost all of the questions. I'm probably just unusually slow. :P

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 31 March 2016 11:04:34AM 28 points [-]

Survey taken. By me, even.

Comment author: labachevskij 31 March 2016 08:50:15AM 28 points [-]

Took the survey, and as others pointed out had some trouble with the questions about income (net? gross?) Also, is there any place where all the reading (fanfiction, books, blogs) hinted to in the survey are collected? I knew (and have read) some, but many I have never heard of, and would like to find out more.

Comment author: Furcas 31 March 2016 12:32:06AM 28 points [-]

Did it.

Comment author: Alia1d 30 March 2016 11:56:21PM 28 points [-]

I have taken the survey

Comment author: Rixie 31 March 2016 12:25:20PM 27 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: moridinamael 27 March 2016 06:43:48PM 26 points [-]

Was taking it, and it crashed with a "This webpage is not available" error.

Comment author: ingres 27 March 2016 09:28:42PM 4 points [-]

We had some power outage related downtime for three hours or so, should be back up now.

Comment author: moridinamael 28 March 2016 01:49:30PM 4 points [-]

I'm a little unclear on how to proceed. I didn't establish a "save", so I can't really resume the survey. Does that mean I should start a new survey and pick up where I left off, or ... ?

Comment author: ingres 29 March 2016 05:34:13PM *  2 points [-]

If you'd be willing to go through the trouble of doing it, yes that's exactly what you should do. I didn't think of that, thanks.

Though from a data-consistency perspective people doing this would skew our response rate higher than it really is, I'd rather have the question data than an accurate response rate though so. shrug

On the session timeout front, we're trying something out to make the sessions longer, which should cut down on that particular problem significantly.

Comment author: EricHerboso 01 April 2016 05:54:15AM 25 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: Mollie 01 April 2016 02:53:44AM 25 points [-]

I took the survey.

Comment author: [deleted] 31 March 2016 10:58:14AM 25 points [-]

I've taken the survey.

Thanks Huluk for creating this subthread, very handy when reading others' comments about the survey itself.

Comment author: Morgrim 01 April 2016 06:04:11PM 23 points [-]

I have taken the survey

Comment author: Val 01 April 2016 02:33:15PM *  23 points [-]

Besides saying that I have taken the survey...

I would also like to mention that the predictions of probabilities of unobservable concepts was the hardest one for me. Of course, there are some in which i believe more than in some others, but still, any probability besides 0% or 100% seems really strange for me. For something like being in a simulation, if I would believe it but have some doubts, saying 99%, or if I would not believe but being open to it and saying 1%, these seem so arbitrary and odd for me. 1% is really huge in the scope of very probable or very improbable concepts which cannot be tested yet (and some may never ever be).

... before losing my sanity in trying to choose the percentages I would find plausible at least a few minutes later, I had to fill them based on my current gut feelings instead of Fermi estimation-like calculations.

Comment author: MrMind 01 April 2016 10:43:28AM 23 points [-]

Survey taken.

Comment author: Bobertron 01 April 2016 06:38:36PM 22 points [-]

Me, too! I've taken the survey and would like to receive some free internet points.

Comment author: Vaegrim 01 April 2016 05:40:43PM 22 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: alexey 02 April 2016 09:14:05AM 20 points [-]

I've taken the survey.

Comment author: pseudobison 02 April 2016 09:11:12AM 20 points [-]

I've taken the survey.

Comment author: Vamair0 02 April 2016 08:37:12AM 20 points [-]

I've taken the survey.

Comment author: Rowdy 02 April 2016 07:45:57AM 20 points [-]

I completed the survey. Elo, thanks for organising this!

Comment author: Error 04 April 2016 07:05:47PM 19 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

I enjoyed the "yes, I worry about X, but only because I worry about everything" responses.

Comment author: taryneast 18 April 2016 05:25:59AM 1 point [-]

I really liked things like "option for people who aren't in the US and want an option to choose" plus I think I recall one like "I like clicking on options" :D

Comment author: ekr 03 April 2016 06:12:02PM 19 points [-]

Survey has been taken.

Comment author: coyotespike 05 April 2016 08:25:54PM 17 points [-]

Me! Me! I totally took the survey!

Comment author: Transfuturist 27 March 2016 12:39:57AM 44 points [-]

I have taken the survey. I did not treat the metaphysical probabilities as though I had a measure over them, because I don't.

Comment author: [deleted] 29 March 2016 04:10:37AM 8 points [-]

Similarly, I gave self-conscious nonsense numbers when asked for subjective probabilities for most things, because I really did not have an internal model with few-enough free parameters (and placement of causal arrows can be a free parameter!) to think of numerical probabilities.

So I may be right about a few of the calibration questions, but also inconsistently confident, since I basically put down low (under 33%) chances of being correct for all the nontrivial ones.

Also, I left everything about "Singularities" blank, because I don't consider the term well-defined enough, even granting "intelligence explosions", to actually talk about it coherently. I'd be a coin flip if you asked me.

So basically, sorry for being That Jerk who ruins the survey by favoring superbabies and restorative gerontology, disbelieving utterly in cryonics and the Singularity, and having completely randomized calibration results.

Comment author: Theli 08 April 2016 03:21:44AM 14 points [-]

Took the survey before joining.

Comment author: Nick_Roy 09 April 2016 11:53:17AM 13 points [-]

Taken.

Comment author: Soothsilver 09 April 2016 10:45:04AM 13 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: timujin 07 April 2016 07:11:44PM 13 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: nitrat665 09 April 2016 06:56:07PM 12 points [-]

I have taken the survey

Comment author: khriys 09 April 2016 06:13:56AM 12 points [-]

I have taken the survey! Please reward my compliance.

Comment author: elRobbo 12 April 2016 01:42:29AM 11 points [-]

I have taken the survey. It was fun, thanks!

Comment author: Jacobian 11 April 2016 06:54:17PM 11 points [-]

Lo, I have taken the survey.

Comment author: hylleddin 14 April 2016 08:11:38AM 9 points [-]

Oh right, I forgot this part. I have taken the survey (like two weeks ago)

Comment author: Conscience 18 April 2016 06:50:12AM 7 points [-]

I have taken the survey. It was interesting, thanx to those who made it!

Comment author: Legolan 26 April 2016 11:14:10PM 6 points [-]

I have taken the survey.

Comment author: hofmannsthal 25 April 2016 07:59:50PM 6 points [-]

Newbie, done.

Comment author: cameroncowan 21 April 2016 11:47:54PM 6 points [-]

I took the survey for the 2nd year in a row. Can't wait to see the results.

Comment author: Spectral_Dragon 02 April 2016 10:35:30AM 16 points [-]

I've said it before and I've said it again - this is mild cult behavior.

... That being said, bring on the low cost gratification! I've taken the survey!

Comment author: hg00 03 April 2016 05:00:46PM 2 points [-]

Fun traditions might be undignified by the standards of academia, but they're perfectly normal in many other social contexts (small company, group house, etc.)

You know what else exemplifies "mild cult behavior"? Burning Man! They give each other physical gifts instead of imaginary internet gifts. Even more problematic.

If you are willing to define "cult" broadly enough, you can use the term to shut down any kind of cultural development. (Of course, cultural development that's already happened will get grandfathered in, the same way we don't call religions "cults" because they are too dignified and established.)

Comment author: Lumifer 03 April 2016 10:51:05PM -2 points [-]

You know what else exemplifies "mild cult behavior"? Burning Man!

No, I don't think it does. Burning Man is an event and a community. I don't see any cultish tendencies around it.

Comment author: hg00 05 April 2016 03:15:18AM *  2 points [-]

I was being sarcastic. My point was that the "cult" label can be hard to shake whether or not it's deserved--I analogized to Burning Man since it shares characteristics with LW, but was lucky enough to avoid getting labeled a "cult".

Comment author: Lumifer 05 April 2016 02:37:26PM -1 points [-]

but was lucky enough

You really think it was just luck that BM didn't get a "cult" label and LW did..?

Comment author: hg00 06 April 2016 09:05:08AM 1 point [-]

I did not mean to say that it was "just" luck, but of course luck played a role (as it always does).

Comment author: [deleted] 27 March 2016 08:35:09AM 8 points [-]

META

  • Why are some people upvoted more or less than others? I predicted I would be far less upvoted than others because of my controversiality but I am one of the highest upvoted here. From memory, this can't be explained by the recency of others posting that they have completed the survey. In light of what I see here, I will re-evaluate my entire post history. If people are biased towards me rather than away, that changes my entire posting strategy.
Comment author: Vaniver 27 March 2016 04:44:01PM 8 points [-]

This has come up before. Then, it looked like gwern and I both got a boost from name recognition, but for everyone else it was just dependent on when they took the survey.

If I come by every day and upvote everyone, before I come that day a fraction of the people will have upvotes from me and another fraction won't, determined by time. Now add a bunch of people doing similar things but at different schedules (or only upvoting everyone who took it before they did, and not anyone who took it after, because they don't come back to this page).

Comment author: gjm 27 March 2016 07:08:49PM 9 points [-]

Yup. Pretty sure the dominant thing is just that people who report having taken the survey earlier get more upvotes.

Comment author: RowanE 27 March 2016 10:33:09AM 4 points [-]

I see 20-30 (didn't count) comments in the thread so far, probably people are too lazy to upvote every one more than they vet who they upvote here, I think.

Comment author: SquirrelInHell 27 March 2016 08:42:51AM 3 points [-]

Are you going to agree with everyone now, because it's more controversial to do so?

Comment author: rational_rob 07 April 2016 01:36:31AM *  0 points [-]

Wait! Crap! I already replied. Good thing I caught this before anyone upvoted it.