Houshalter comments on Lesswrong 2016 Survey - Less Wrong
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Comments (273)
[Survey Taken Thread]
Let's make these comments a reply to this post. That way we continue the tradition, but keep the discussion a bit cleaner.
I took the survey 2 days ago. It was fun. I think I was well calibrated for those calibration questions, but sadly there was no "results" section.
Is it possible to self-consistently believe you're poorly calibrated? If you believe you're overconfident then you would start making less confident predictions right?
Being poorly calibrated can also mean you're inconsistent between being overconfident and underconfident.
You can be imperfectly synchronised across contexts & instances.