buybuydandavis comments on Lesswrong 2016 Survey - Less Wrong

28 Post author: Elo 30 March 2016 06:17PM

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Comment author: Good_Burning_Plastic 26 March 2016 10:36:04AM 12 points [-]

Taken.

BTW, in the global warning question I took "significant" to mean "much larger than typical natural variability over the same timescales". My answer would have been higher if it meant "much larger than measurement uncertainties", lower if it meant "likely to have negative effects much larger than the cost of averting the warning would have been", and even lower if it meant "much larger than typical natural variability over any timescales".

Comment author: buybuydandavis 29 March 2016 12:20:09PM 6 points [-]

Ick. I was annoyed with the Global Warming question. Without a timescale and an objective definition of "significant", there's no particular meaning to the question besides signaling team membership.

I left it blank because of the vagueness. I wonder if the vagueness will have a biased or unbiased effect on those who decline to respond.

Comment author: Good_Burning_Plastic 16 April 2016 10:04:55AM *  0 points [-]

Suggestion for next year's survey:

  • Reword the question in the Probabilities section to "What is the probability that the average temperatures on Earth (averaged over a few decades) are rising at a much higher rate than typical of natural variability, largely as a result of human activities?"
  • Add a question to the Politics section reading "How would you describe your opinion on efforts to contain global warming?"
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