Dave_D comments on Buy Now Or Forever Hold Your Peace - Less Wrong

21 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 February 2008 09:42PM

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Comment author: Dave_D 04 February 2008 10:17:25PM 2 points [-]

Of course, this opportunity presents itself every day in the form of sports betting. Sometimes the markets are "wrong" (e.g. yesterday's Super Bowl), but in the long term, it is pretty hard to beat the sports markets. FWIW, the sportsbook I use currently shows the same odds as intrade (http://www.wsex.com/market/DEMOCRATNOMINEE-2008.html) which makes sense as otherwise someone would arbitrage the difference away.