HalFinney comments on Buy Now Or Forever Hold Your Peace - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (58)
I suppose people could write in their predictions here, and gain some local cred for being right. It's not clear what exactly we should be predicting though. The election situation is actually quite complex as many or most states are no longer winner-take-all, so it comes down to hundreds of individual districts. Districts assigned an odd number of delegates are particularly prized!
Fortunately our disappointment about being shut-out of the markets due to gambling-oriented financial regulations may be partially assuaged by considering the various no-trade theorems, which state (under various idealized conditions) that you wouldn't trade in the markets even if you could, because the fact that someone else is willing to take the opposite side of the bet is prima facie evidence that his information is as good as yours.