Paul_Gowder comments on Buy Now Or Forever Hold Your Peace - Less Wrong

21 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 February 2008 09:42PM

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Comment author: Paul_Gowder 05 February 2008 04:23:31PM 0 points [-]

What if one thinks (as do I) that not only do prediction markets do badly, but so do I? If both me and the market aren't doing better than random, do I have positive expected utility for betting?

Also, I'm not sure how intrade's payoff calculation works -- how much does one stand to gain per dollar on a bet at those odds? I think I'm pretty risk-averse if I'm gambling $250.00 for a $10.00 gain.

Anyway. My cash-free prediction is Obama by 2 points in general.