HalFinney comments on Buy Now Or Forever Hold Your Peace - Less Wrong

21 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 February 2008 09:42PM

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Comment author: HalFinney 05 February 2008 10:53:13PM 2 points [-]

Hot off the presses from the Wall Street Journal:

"The Wall Street Journal political market, run in partnership with Intrade.com, shows the Democratic nomination race in a dead heat: Hillary Clinton is rated a 50% chance of eventually securing the nomination, to Obama's 49%. Notably, the chances of an Obama victory have risen from 40% only yesterday morning, likely buoyed by strong national polling which shows Mr. Obama drawing within striking distance of Mrs. Clinton."

Obama received a similar bounce immediately after winning the Iowa caucuses, briefly vaulting up to 70% in the Intrade market before falling back to the 40% range. One thing to watch out for in these markets is the possibility that campaign strategists will see them as a tool to manipulate coverage, pouring funds into the markets to give their candidates a brief but well-timed boost. If and when this happens, it is a profit opportunity for traders whose strategy is to moderate sudden swings.