ChristianKl comments on Suppose HBD is True - Less Wrong
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You don't actually need to do explicit eugenics to change population patterns. China had the same demographic development as Taiwan did. China's birthrate also rose directly after adopting the one-child-policy. Culture seems to be a much stronger factor then direct policies.
If the birthrate falls drastically for a decade and then there a policy change and the birthrate rises, that's evidence that suggets that it's not clear that the policy change effectively lowers the birthrate. It's not conclusive evience, but it's evidence pointing in a direction.