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timtyler comments on Typicality and Asymmetrical Similarity - Less Wrong
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Reasonable, but wouldn't such reasoning make Duck->Robin much more likely than Robin->Duck, since ducks seem to migrate further than robins (which at least in America don't go further south than Florida) -- the exact opposite of what people said?
You disagree with their collective intellligence?
Maybe you know something they don't. Or maybe they know something you don't...
I disagree with collective intelligences all the time. Problem?
Not a problem, provided you turn out to be right and the "collective intelligences" wrong more often than not. Do you?
I think I do. My calibration is pretty good so far, and that's on many collectively sourced predictions like Intrade.
"If you are so smart, why aren't you rich?"
Akrasia and lack of capital.