Manfred comments on Open thread, June 27 - July 3, 2016 - Less Wrong
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This comment got 6+ responses, but none that actually attempted to answer the question. My goal of Socratically prompting contrarian thinking, without being explicitly contrarian myself, apparently failed. So here is my version:
Argument thread!
You should probably stay at your big company job because the people who are currently startup founders are self-selected for, on average, different things than you're selecting yourself for by trying to jump on a popular trend, and so their success is only a weak predictor of your success.
Startups often cash out by generating hype and getting bought for ridiculous amounts of money by a big company. But they are very, very often, in more sober analysis, not worth this money. From a societal perspective this is bad because it's not properly aligning incentives with wealth creation, and from a new-entrant perspective this is bad because you likely fail if the bubble pops before you can sell.