The argument is that ... traditional methods have a lower likelihood of unforeseen negative outcomes due to the rapid and intricate methods by which GMO are altered.
That argument doesn't seem persuasive to me. A couple of reasons why: first, I think the "likelihood of unforeseen negative outcomes" in both cases is very vague and uncertain, sufficiently so to make judgement calls about which is lower to be not very credible. Second, in the context of "it's been fine for 20 years but we're not sure about the really long term", I don't see how the "rapid and intricate" quality is relevant.
I would agree with you that the quoted statement is not terribly persuasive. I was simply encapsulating the actual argument at hand, instead of the straw-man argument of "method versus outcome." And while the vagueness diminishes the magnitude of the evidence, I don't believe it makes it non-zero.
To your second point:
in the context of "it's been fine for 20 years but we're not sure about the really long term", I don't see how the "rapid and intricate" quality is relevant.
I would add to ChristianKI's apt reply that while co...
Basically: How does one pursue the truth when direct engagement with evidence is infeasible?
I came to this question while discussing GMO labeling. In this case I am obviously not in a position to experiment for myself, but furthermore: I do not have the time to build up the bank of background understanding to engage vigorously with the study results themselves. I can look at them with a decent secondary education's understanding of experimental method, genetics, and biology, but that is the extent of it.
In this situation I usually find myself reduced to weighing the proclamations of authorities: